The German Tank Problem

And how a simple formula outperformed intelligence agencies

World War 2 marked a dark chapter in human history. Not surprisingly, it was also a period of significant technological innovation in the military realm, introducing the world to the atom bomb, submarines, and more. The war's toll on soldiers spurred urgent advances in medical treatment. Similarly, the field of statistics underwent significant developments, providing crucial data for making informed decisions.

Serial Numbers

Everything from smartphones to banknotes, certificates to airplanes, likely carries a serial number. These numbers can often tell us when an item was made or its model. But there's more to serial numbers, especially when they're assigned sequentially.

Imagine a basket of apples, each tagged with a unique number from 1 to N. You randomly pick out four apples, numbered 12, 35, 48, and 21. Can these numbers help you estimate the total apples in the basket?

Well, definitely mor…